Once a production hub, Australia’s motoring industry is now facing the prospect of losing one of its most acclaimed model series, the Holden Commodore (and apparently, its Caprice derivatives) after the upcoming redesign, which is scheduled for 2013.

While production of the 2013 Commodore VF will endure at least until 2017, The Sydney Morning Herald (via its Drive car site) is reporting today that Holden chairman and managing director Mike Devereux confirmed that the brand will decide on its local manufacturing future beyond 2018 before the end of December.

“We are pretty close to making that decision [on long term local production]. When we make it I won’t tell you what it is,” said Devereux, who added that if there’s a positive outcome, General Motors Australian subsidiary will manufacture two models in the same plant, much like it does today with the Commodore and the Cruze.

“We’re working on the business cases not just for a larger vehicle but for also something else. We have a lot of degrees of freedom to make sure that those things are what you’re going to want to drive six years from now in numbers we need to make in order for the thing to work,” said Devereux.

Devereux stressed that Holden’s local manufacturing future would largely depend on the discussions with the Australian government to secure long-term assistance, be that for “co-investment, tax breaks or other incentives”.

“We need to have pretty solid conversations with the government – and we’re having those [now],” he said. “What is absolutely critical is long-term policy certainty, clarity, consistency and competitiveness.”

Devereux pointed out that the current level of government support isn’t enough to secure a fresh investment for future models, adding that “government investment, or intervention, should not be a dirty word”.

Australia’s other heavyweight in the auto industry, Ford, is also believed to be close to making a decision for its long-term manufacturing future in the country, though the company’s plans are not yet clear.

“We are continuing to look for ways to improve and increase our local production,” Ford Australia public affairs director Sinead Phipps, told Drive. “We are absolutely working on a plan to continue in Australia,” he added.

Story References: Sydney Morning Herald/Drive