Remember the shock Toyota sent through the luxury car market with the launch of the LS400 in 1989? The Lexus brand came out of nowhere to bust the decades-old battle between BMW and Mercedes wide open. And now it looks like Tesla isn’t merely about to repeat that act by getting a seat at the luxury table, but wants to park its electric ass on the throne at the end of it.

Based on sales data, BMW was ranked the most popular luxury brand in the U.S. for 2021, a position it also held in the two years prior, having overhauled Mercedes, which occupied the top spot in the three years before that. Lexus, which barely registers at all in Europe, but performs strongly in America, hasn’t been number one since 2010, but it’s continued to be a thorn in the side of both BMW and Mercedes.

BMW reported 336,644 U.S. sales for 2021, just ahead of Lexus on 304,475, with Mercedes trailing in third spot at 276,012, in part due to its less effective handling of the semiconductor supply crisis. At least that’s how it looks so far, but we haven’t factored Tesla into the equation.

As Automotive News explains, it’s not so easy to analyse Tesla’s success because the auto maker doesn’t break out U.S. sales from its overall total. But the Automotive News Research & Data Center’s info suggests Tesla delivered 313,400 vehicles in 2021, a figure that if true would make the EV company the second best selling luxury car brand.

Related: BMW Takes Global And U.S. Luxury Sales Crown From Mercedes

That is massively significant. Automotive News thinks Tesla’s U.S. sales climbed 65 percent in 2021 over the previous year, while globally the picture is even rosier, with the marque delivering just shy of 1 million cars, representing a rise of 87 percent. And while Tesla continues to look strong for 2022, Mercedes this week issued a warning that the chip crisis would continue to affect production and sales for the first half of the year.

So is Tesla about to cruise to the top of the chart and overhaul even mighty BMW in the next 12 months? One industry analyst Automotive News spoke to isn’t so sure, pointing to the lack of substantially new Tesla product (the Model S is almost a decade old) and ongoing quality issues.

And let’s not forget that BMW, Mercedes and Lexus have launched, or are about to launch, a huge number of dedicated EVs like the i4, iX, EQE and RZ that they weren’t able to offer buyers in 2021. Those EVs will cover various price points and have the backing of a traditional dealer network.

Will Tesla rise to the top of the luxury car space, or is the EV brand’s assault on BMW, Mercedes and Lexus about to run out of charge? Leave a comment and let us know what you think.