The last time a non-Mercedes driver won the Formula 1 world championship, it was 2013 and Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel was laying claim to his fourth consecutive and possibly final title ever.

Could 2020 be the year in which another Red Bull driver takes home the crown? Normally, this wouldn’t even be a reasonable discussion to have, and the reason we’re having it isn’t just because we’re getting a shortened season due to the coronavirus epidemic.

So here’s what’s going on. Formula 1 racing will recommence on July 5 with the Austrian Grand Prix at the Red Bull Ring. This event will be part of a double-header, with the teams returning to the Austrian circuit the very next weekend.

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The next round will take place in Hungary at the Hungaroring, followed by another double-header at Silverstone in the UK, and visits to the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya in Spain, Spa-Francorchamps in Belgium and Monza in Italy.

As of right now, we’re not sure how many other races will be slotted in after these initial eight, and where they will be held. So among all this uncertainty, here’s what we know:

Max Verstappen won the previous two Austrian Grands Prix, in 2019 and 2018, and took pole position last year in Hungary. It’s clear that these two tracks suit the Red Bull driver and his Honda-powered car tremendously well, and if he were to kick off this season with three consecutive victories, it could be really hard for any of the Mercedes drivers, or the Ferrari ones for that matter, to catch up. But again, this depends on what the final calendar for 2020 will look like.

Verstappen also won in Brazil, Mexico and Malaysia these past three years, and all three tracks could be added to the mix in the coming months.

Even if the Red Bull driver doesn’t win all three races, it’s clear that he will make for a formidable foe if his performance record at those tracks is anything to go by. This in turn could hinder Mercedes, who also need to worry about Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Sebastian Vettel.

The FIA and Formula 1 both expect to squeeze in a total of 15-18 races before completing the season in December, which is plausible but far from a certainty. As far as we’re concerned, the fewer races there are, the greater the odds of us getting a brand new world champion, at least as far as the Driver’s title is concerned.

Dethroning Mercedes as a title-winning constructor, however, might prove a lot more difficult, but not impossible. Either way, we can’t tell for sure until the season finally kicks off, but we hope that Mercedes faces some stiff competition from Red Bull and Ferrari just to make F1 more exciting to watch.