Tesla Shares Forecast Saying The Models Nobody Buys Will Double In Sales In Q4

For the second year running, Tesla is on course to report a decline in annual vehicle sales, an unusual slip for the longtime electric vehicle frontrunner. The downturn comes as competition heats up across the industry, the federal EV tax credit phases out, and scrutiny around its CEO shows no sign of letting up.

Even so, despite a difficult stretch through 2024 and 2025, analysts are betting that Tesla’s long-term trajectory remains intact, projecting an 84 percent rise in annual deliveries by 2029.

Read: Tesla Owners Are Adding Escape Tools Before It’s Too Late

Before releasing its official fourth-quarter sales data, and revealing how many (or how few) cars it sold, Tesla published average sales estimates on its investors’ website from a range of well-known analysts. For Q4 2025, those estimates averaged 422,850 vehicles, a sharp 15 percent drop from the 497,099 units sold in Q3, when EV buyers hurried to make purchases ahead of the discontinued federal tax credit.

Is Tesla Managing Expectations?

If deliveries come in just under 423,000 for Q4, Tesla’s total for 2025 would reach 1,640,752 vehicles. That would mark a decline of more than 8 percent compared to last year. However, Bloomberg’s compilation of analyst predictions shows a more generous Q4 average of 440,907 units.

This has prompted speculation that Tesla may have selectively highlighted more conservative forecasts in order to reset expectations. If the final number surpasses its published average of 422,850, the company could position the outcome as a relative success.

Either way, the numbers raise plenty of questions. According to the forecasts, combined sales of the popular Model 3 and Model Y drop from 481,166 units in Q3 2025 to 388,002 in Q4. Yet, at the same time, its least popular vehicles, the Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X, more than double their sales, climbing from 15,933 in Q3 to 34,848 units in Q4.

Tesla Delivery Consensus

What’s particularly interesting about the data compiled by Tesla, from the likes of Barclays, Wells Fargo, UBS, and Jefferies, are the longer-range sales projections for 2026 through 2029. On average, these analysts expect Tesla to sell 1,750,243 vehicles next year, with significant growth continuing in the years that follow.

By 2027, these analysts estimate that deliveries could reach 2,010,459 vehicles, then rise to 2,350,451 in 2028 and 3,019,902 in 2029. That would represent a huge 84 percent increase over Tesla’s 2025 figures.

Musk’s EV Forecast Gives Way to Automation Vision

Years ago, Elon Musk set a wildly ambitious goal: 20 million vehicles sold annually by 2030, placing Tesla in the same league as Toyota and the Volkswagen Group. But, like many of Musk’s overly optimistic forecasts, including the oft-repeated promise of 200,000 Cybertruck deliveries a year, the company has since distanced itself from that target.

These days, the company is more focused on ramping up the development and eventual mass production of its humanoid robot. According to Musk, it could become the best-selling product of any kind ever launched.