Even though we’re still in 2015, when it comes to choosing next year’s European automotive champ, proceedings tend to start very early.

This year, we have a grand total of 40 models to choose from. The list will shrink by December 1st, 2015, afterwards we’ll see two more stages of voting.

The first stage will leave us with a shortlist of just 7 models (to be announced by December 14th, 2015), whereas the second stage will be the one to determine the single winner – which will be revealed at the 2016 Geneva Motor Show on February 29th, 2016.

Before you start analyzing the finalists, keep in mind that never since 1983 has a premium car maker won this award. Back then it was the Audi 100 that walked away with it, edging out the Ford Sierra and Volvo 760.

Since then, we’ve only had small cars, compact cars, non-premium mid-size cars and MPVs winning the competition. Our last two winners were of course the VW Passat for this year and Peugeot 308 for 2014.

Without further ado, here are your 2016 European COTY finalists:

Alfa Romeo Giulia
Audi A4
Audi Q7
Audi R8
BMW 7 Series
BMW X1
Ferrari 488 GTB
Fiat Aegea
Ford S-Max / Galaxy
Ford Mustang
Honda Jazz
Honda HR-V
Hyundai Tucson
Infiniti Q30
Jaguar XE
Jaguar XF
KIA Optima
KIA Sorento
Land Rover Discovery Sport
Mazda2
Mazda CX-3
Mazda MX-5
McLaren 570S
Mercedes-Benz GLC / GLC Coupe
Mercedes-Benz GLE / GLE Coupe
Mercedes-AMG GT
Opel / Vauxhall Astra
Opel / Vauxhall Karl
Renault Talisman
Renault Espace
Renault Kadjar
Skoda Superb
Ssangyong Tivoli
Subaru Levorg
Subaru Outback
Suzuki Vitara
Tesla Model X
Toyota Mirai
Volkswagen Touran
Volvo XC90

Even though there’s no precedent of a premium model winning it since 83 and no sportscar/supercar manufacturer winning it since Porsche did in 1978 with the 928, we can’t completely rule out the possibility of Audi, BMW, Jaguar, Mercedes-Benz or Volvo walking away with the title.

Playing it safe, we could argue that the Skoda Superb has a great chance – so this could be our sneaky pick, which actually kind of looks like the safest pick.

The Passat won it this year and the Insignia in 2009 so another mid-sized winner could make sense.

How do you guys feel about it?

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