A recent report says that out of all manufactures building cars in UK, General Motors is the one mostly likely to move its operations to mainland Europe after Brexit.

GM’s Vauxhall is currently building the Astra hatchback in Ellesmere Port and the Vivaro van in Luton, but there is a “high risk” of the company shifting production to Germany or Poland according to a forecast issued by LMC Automotive.

This would protect GM if the EU decides to impose import tariffs on UK exports as a result of the United Kingdom leaving the Union, with the forecast saying that this most likely would happen around 2021, when the Astra’s replacement is going to enter the market.

According to Autonews, Ellesmere Port is in danger of closing because it has the lowest parts localization of any volume car maker in the country, at around 25 per cent. “It has a low anchorage, so in that sense, it’s the most vulnerable,” said Garel Rhys, emeritus professor of motor industry economics at the UK’s Cardiff Business School.

GM has been making cars in the factory there since 1964. A Vauxhall spokesman said it is “business as usual” until the UK government signs an agreement with the European Union on their future relationship.

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