Elon Musk has extremely ambitious plans for the upcoming Model 3 and many analysts are doubtful they’ll be achieved.
The outspoken chief executive of Tesla has yet to unveil the production-spec Model 3 but believes the car can outsell both the Mercedes-Benz C-Class and BMW 3-Series in just its first year on the market.
According to Musk, Tesla will build 1,000 Model 3s a week in July. That figure will climb to 2,000 a week in August, 4,000 a week in September, 5,000 a week by the end of the year and finally, 10,000 a week by the end of 2018. If these lofty targets are achieved, Tesla will create around 430,000 Model 3s by the end of next year, a figure greater than the total number of EVs sold worldwide in 2016.
When combined with the Model 3 and Model X, Musk forecasts Tesla will build at least 500,000 cars next year.
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance electric car analyst Salim Morsy, selling so many Model 3s “would be absolutely unprecedented based on what we know about car markets today and how people spend their dollars. It could happen. I’m pretty sure it won’t,” he said.
In an effort to roll-out the car as quickly as possible, Tesla will deliver the first few thousand Model 3s to its employees, allowing the carmaker to easily fix any issues the car may initially encounter. Additionally, the automaker will launch base Model 3 variants first, delaying the launch of dual-motor and high-performance versions for six to nine months.