Study Claims One In Six New Cars Will Be Electric By 2025

According to an UBS global autos study, 16% of cars sold around the world in the year 2025 will be electric, and most of them will be wearing a Tesla badge.

The study, which you can check out here, also indicates that total EV sales should hit 16.5 million by the middle of the next decade, marking a 16% increase over previous estimates of a 14 percent share, reports Bloomberg.

“The shift to electric cars will come faster and in a more pronounced way, fueled by the diesel demise in Europe, battery technology advancements and regulation in China and Europe,” said UBS analyst Patrick Hummel, who expects Tesla to be on top when it’s all said and done.

Yet, it’s also looking like Europe will have the highest EV market penetration, with nearly 30% of all new cars sold expected to be electrified.

Meanwhile, established automakers such as BMW and Daimler AG continue to spend billions trying to leapfrog Tesla, but may find that this is not an easy task.

“Tesla’s increasing popularity seems directly correlated to the launch of the Model 3, the brand’s first mass-market car. Most of the other brands have lost ground in the current survey,” Hummel concluded.


  • sure 10 years ago we heard something very similar. look around.

    • Moveon Libtards

      Where is Bradley these days? Doesnt he write all the EV hype articles? Or just the Tesla ones?

  • TheBelltower

    Hopefully not the dumpster on wheels shown in the top image.

  • brn

    Thanks to CarScoops for linking to the actual study report.

    A quick scan, looks like they looked at historical market trends, upcoming manufacturing trends, and surveyed potential customers. They seemed to do a pretty good job, but it’s still a SWAG. Too many variables.

  • You lost me at “…most of them will be wearing a Tesla badge.” Considering Tesla have lost their lead over other major manufacturers, this comes as a shock. I get Tesla is this cool, hip brand to drive for but so is BMW, Audi, Mercedes etc… when they can offer a similar car which will be better built, have a better, combined infrastructure for charging and actual build quality. None of this ” DAB radio coming shortly” excuse for rushed development.

    • Moveon Libtards

      Chevy BOLTS outsell Tesla cars and they dont have manufacturing excuses!

      Tesla fanboys are cult members.

  • Moveon Libtards

    Only 1 in 6 at best?

    So much for the hype.

    See this article from Zerohedge for the truth about Tesla:

    But Tesla – which lost $619 million in Q3 – delivered only 3,590 vehicles in November in the US, down 18% from a year ago.

    There are all kinds of interesting aspects about this.
    One: 3,590 vehicles amounts to a market share of only 0.26%, of the 1,393,010 new cars and trucks sold in the US in November. Porsche outsold Tesla by 55% (5,555 new vehicles).

    Two: Tesla doesn’t report monthly deliveries. It wants to play with the big boys, but it doesn’t want people to know on a monthly basis just how crummy and by comparison inconsequential its US sales numbers are. Opaque and dedicated to hype, it refuses to disclose how many vehicles it delivered that month in the US. So the industry is estimating Tesla’s monthly US sales.

    Tesla discloses unit sales data in its quarterly earnings reports, long after everyone has already forgotten about the months in which they occurred.

    Three: So how are Model 3 sales doing? Since Tesla doesn’t disclose its monthly deliveries in the US, the industry is guessing. The assembly line still isn’t working. “Manufacturing bottlenecks,” as Tesla calls it, and “manufacturing hell,” as Elon Musk calls it, rule the day.

    In Q3, Tesla delivered 220 handmade Model 3’s. In October, it delivered about 145 handmade units. In November, the assembly line still wasn’t assembling cars. Inside EVs estimates that Tesla delivered a whopping 345 units in November.

    Four: This is where hype goes to die. In February 2017, Tesla hyped these Model 3 production numbers for 2017:

    Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018.
    November is solidly in the fourth quarter. 5,000 vehicles per week would mean over 20,000 a month. OK, this is November and not December, so maybe 4,000 a week for a total of 16,000. We got 345.

    Even if the estimate of 345 is off by 100 units up or down, it doesn’t even matter. And December isn’t looking much better. Because there is still no mass-produced Model 3.

    Five: The bestselling Model S isn’t best-selling anymore. Inside EVs estimates that Tesla delivered 1,335 Model S in the US. This was far outpaced by the humble Model-3-killer the Chevy Bolt. GM sold 2,987 Bolts in November. Tesla is also estimated to have delivered 1,875 Model X SUVs in the US. It took the Model S and the Model X combined to beat the humble Bolt.

    Six: The unglamorous Model-3-killer is number one. The Chevy Bolt faces no “production bottlenecks” and no “manufacturing hell.” It was rolled out gradually, starting in October 2016 in California and Oregon, with other states being added to the distribution plan over time. By August 2017, the Bolt was available in all states. By September, 2,632 Bolts were sold in the US; in October 2,781; and in November 2,987.

    The Bolt became the best-selling EV in October and retained that crown in November. Nothing was even close. November was the ninth month in a row of rising sales, as it should be for a brand-new vehicle line. GM has sold 20,070 Bolts so far this year.

    Seven: But the Bolt is just a flyspeck for GM. It’s something to build the foundation for a larger shift to EVs. It represented just 1.2% of GM’s total deliveries in the US in November. EVs are still just a niche product. And yet, even this flyspeck crushed every Tesla model without fanfare.

  • jsz00

    I doubt it… hybrids probably, all electric? Nah. The infrastructure will never be there and we’re broke.

  • Stop The Baloney

    The study already had a conclusion before anything was actually researched. That is how these studies are done. The results are twisted to fit the answer they want. Carscoops should know better…..but they have an agenda also.

  • smartacus

    This is getting tiring
    They keep on saying
    oh you just wait a few
    short years then most
    cars will be pure electric
    Well here we are almost
    2018 and they are still not
    anywhere near taking over