According to a study by IHS Markit, global car sales will be on the decline over the next two decades as consumers are set to embrace on-demand car-hailing services.
While about 80 million vehicles per year are currently sold in the U.S., Europe, China and India, these numbers are anticipated to drop to 54 million over the next 23 years.
The study also points to all-electric vehicles accounting for about 19% of all-sales by the year 2040, with plug-in hybrids accounting for another 14% of sales. Meanwhile, cars powered by petrol or diesel will make up about 62% of new car sales in the previously-mentioned markets.
“A great ‘automotive paradox’ – where more travel via car than ever, but fewer cars will be needed by individuals – will be a defining quality of the new automotive future,” said IHS Markit, vice chairman, Daniel Yergin, while adding that this shift is “just the beginning.”
The mobility service industry itself will buy more than 10 million cars in 2040 in the four markets analyzed in this study. This would mark a significant increase compared to the roughly 300,000 used in 2017, reports Autonews.
Ironically, even though fewer cars will be sold in the future, demand for petroleum is expected to go up, from the current 98 million barrels per day, to 115 million barrels in 2040 – however, it’s important to note that cars will only account for a third of total oil demand.