- Analysts predict that a touch under 3.7 million new cars were sold in Q1.
- GM, Toyota, Ford, and Hyundai have all seen their sales drop this quarter.
- Interestingly, Nissan and Honda have sold more cars in Q4.
New car sales in the USA appear to be cooling off in the first quarter, with affordability pressures tightening their grip. Rising gas prices, now hovering at levels not seen in more than three years, are only adding to the strain.
Analysts at Edmunds estimate that 3,693,459 new cars and trucks will have been sold across the country by the end of March. Final numbers will be released later this week, but if that projection holds, it marks a 6.3% drop compared with Q1 2025 and an 8.8% decline from the previous quarter.
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As Jessica Caldwell points out, this slowdown is not solely tied to rising gas prices or broader affordability concerns. Severe weather and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty have also played a role in dampening demand. At the current pace, Edmunds expects the seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, for US auto sales to settle around 15.9 million this year.
Major Brands Feel The Slide
The downturn has not spared the industry’s heavyweights. General Motors is projected to post 625,793 sales in Q1, down 9.8% year over year and 11% from the previous quarter. Toyota is also expected to see a notable decline, with sales slipping 12.9% from Q4 to 568,737 units.
Ford appears to be feeling the sharpest impact. Its first-quarter sales may fall by 10.6% compared to the same period last year and a steep 17.8% decline from Q4 2025.
Forecasted Sales By Group
Edmunds
Only a couple of the country’s biggest car sellers look set to see a quarterly lift, and even that comes with an asterisk. Edmunds predicts Honda will end Q1 with 337,604 sales, down 4.0 percent from Q1 2025, but up 1.5 percent from the 332,578 vehicles it sold in Q4 2025.
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Similarly, Nissan’s US sales may have jumped by as much as 13 percent from Q4, potentially up to 242,072. That sounds healthy at first glance, but it would still leave the brand down 9.4% compared to Q1 2025.
Edmunds also cautions buyers against reacting too quickly to the latest swings in gas prices. As Ivan Drury explains, “Trading in a less fuel-efficient vehicle during a surge can actually put you at a disadvantage, as values for those vehicles soften while demand for more efficient models drives prices up.” In other words, the timing rarely works in your favor.
Forecasted Market Share By Group
Edmunds
