The full extent of Alphabet’s dramatic push for self-driving cars through its Waymo division has become apparent in statistics released by the California Department of Motor Vehicles.
In the year that ended on November 30, 2016, Waymo’s fleet of autonomous vehicles drove 635,867 miles around the streets of California and traveled an average of 5,127 miles before a human driver was forced to take over control, CNBC reports.
The comparison to leading automakers is shocking. In the same time period, General Motors drove just 9,668 miles in California with an average of just 34 miles being driven before a system disengagement. Nissan was the next most prolific tester, covering 4,099 miles with a 28 miles/disengagement rate. Bosch, Mercedes, BMW, Ford and Tesla all traveled less than 1,000 miles each in official autonomous vehicle testing in the state.
On the back of these extraordinary figures, Morgan Stanley believes that Waymo could eventually be spun-off by Alphabet and be worth up to $70 billion by 2030.
In its note to investors, Morgan Stanley said “If we assume that Waymo can grow to ~1% of global miles driven by 2030 (based on a fleet of ~3mn cars each driving ~65k miles/year) and that Waymo can generate on average ~$1.25 in revenue per mile driven, it implies a ~$70bn Waymo enterprise value. More miles/year and revenue/mile could lead to an enterprise value of ~$140bn.”