European Brands Will Soon Overtake Tesla In EV Sales, Says Study

For the last few years, Tesla has had the premium EV market all to itself and played a significant part in accelerating the industry’s shift towards electrification. In the not too distant future, however, it could very well be knocked off its perch.

According to a study by PA Consulting that was published by Bloomberg, Tesla will remain number 1 in the EV market throughout 2019. However, as established car manufacturers begin introducing electric models over the next two years, Elon Musk’s company could fall as low as seventh in global EV sales.

The study suggests that Daimler will take the lead in 2021, followed by BMW, Renault Nissan Mitsubishi, Volkswagen, Volvo, Toyota, and Tesla.

The predictions were made based on car manufacturer strategy, battery technology, culture, supplier networks, partnerships and financial performance.

Unlike Tesla, all of the aforementioned car manufacturers have established supply chains to accelerate the development and production of electric vehicles. What’s more, they all have decades worth of experience of building multiple models on a mass scale. Crucially, that’s something Tesla continues to struggle with, as is evident with the production issues impacting deliveries of the entry-level Model 3.

While sales of the Model S and Model X have been strong in recent years when compared to other EVs, the truth is that both models are built in very limited numbers when compared to the millions of ICE vehicles built annually by the world’s largest automakers. It could conceivably take Tesla five years or more to perfect the art of mass production of various models, and by the time that happens, it may have already lost the electric vehicle crown.

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  • Mr. EP9

    Overtake Tesla? Impossible. Tesla can’t be beaten. They’ll be pumping out 9600 cars a week from their Shanghai factory – when it gets running – and will only improve as time goes on. Foolish car makers can’t touch Tesla. lol

    /s

    • Matthew Boyd

      Are you trying to be funny? Thats a serious question and not a joke. For one, anyone can be beaten, and two, you don’t have any in-depth knowledge of auto manufacturing. Read your comment, you just bragged about Tesla opening up a Shanghai factory and pumping out 9600 cars a week, as if that’s a lot. Tesla produces roughly 100,000 cars a year, there a small company. Say they achieve their 9600 a week from the new factory, that’s still less than 600,000 cars annually. This articles about big manufactures who produce millions of cars a year shifting 20-30 percent of there sales to electric cars. If a company sales 2 million cars a year, and let’s say, by the year 2025 25% of their annual sales will be solely from EV’s, how many cars is that? Imagine a company that sales 10 million cars a year shifting just 10 percent of their sales to EV’s solely. Not trying to make you feel bad but…come on man. What the hell is 9600 cars a week? This article wasn’t about companies like Porsche, Jag, Bentley, Rolls Royce, or Aston Martin starting EV production. If that were the case, you’d have a case and a pretty uncontested argument at that. I would hope Tesla would wipe the floor with them, but come 3-5 years from now, Tesla will not be in the conversation when companies like GM/AUDI/MERCEDES/FORD/TOYOTA and others, with out of this world R&D budgets shift to EV’s. It’s inevitable.

      • Mr. EP9

        Yes, I was trying to be funny and channel my inner Tesla fanboy. I should do a better job conveying that in the future.

        • Matthew Boyd

          lol! I typed a novel for nothing 🙁

          • Oliver Moore

            Thus the /s at the end.

          • Mr. EP9

            Don’t sweat it. I’m not very good at trying to masquerade as a fanboy or maybe I was. Either way, I’ll just stop from now on.

      • David Jones

        Here is a counterpoint: Very few manufacturers are producing even an ICEV sedan at +200k models per year. The best selling car sells at about 900k units per year (Toyota). A manufacturing capacity for a single model at about 500k per year, assuming Tesla reaches this next year (10k per week), is similar to some of the best selling SUV modes out there and far better than most sedans. The plan VW has presented notes about 150k EVs based on their MEB full electric architecture in 2020 and about 500k in 2021. Tesla will likely reach this in 2019 and it is highly likely that they are going to produce more in 2021 with the Model Y and other vehicles making an appearance. The Model Y will be introduced soon which suggests manufacturing will likely start 2-3 years later, that is sometime in 2021. In the case of VW, the 500k in 2021 will not be for a single model but spread out over quite a few models each at a much lower production rate. Tesla has the only longer range EV production system capable of producing around 5000 longer range EVs per week for a single model or approximately 260k per year extrapolated. This is already higher than some of the best selling in-class ICEVs GM and others have to offer. In short, unless Tesla fails completely to reach a single one of their projected targets or their finances run out and bankrupt them, they will likely be ahead in EV production capacities compared to VW, GM and almost anyone else out there in 2021. 2025 is a long way out, nobody can know for sure what the situation will be then. This is not to say that the extra EVs coming out aren’t a good thing, they are.

        • David Jones

          Also, to support production of 500k full EVs, VW would have to have access to 60kWh*500k=30000kWh of battery production in 2021. That is 30GWh just for them, never mind everyone else and is about what the GF1 will handle this year, not in 3 years. Unless plans are to produce 50GWh of batteries for each company with aspirations to surpass Tesla (that means for Tesla to be last, all the companies in front of them as noted by Bloomberg would probably need +300GWh of batteries in 2021), these companies will not be able to feed their needs and will likely go with shorter ranges for most of these vehicles, placing a majority of their EVs at a functional disadvantage. GF1 has a maximum planned capacity of 150GWh so Tesla may be able to expand there further by 2021, maybe reaching 50GWh or more. If the Model Y sells 500k a year they would probably need +60GWh and total cars could reach 1million in 2021/2022. That is higher than any legacy plans I am aware of for this timeframe and keep in mind that this is not a bet-the-company expansion since it is only about a 2x production increase to 2019 targets compared to the 5x Tesla has done in the past. Time will tell how they handle future expansions but 150GWh, assuming this can be done, should allow them to produce batteries for +1million or more cars even with energy projects and from a single factory.

        • Matthew Boyd

          2021 is in the near future, and I agree, I don’t see Tesla loosing it’s crown as the leader in EV’s or EV production for that matter, but there are multiple factors looming that with flip the scales so to say. First, to address production comparisons, once large manufactures begin shifting focus to EV production on a larger scale for multiple models and even PEV’s which will bridge the gap for consumers not willing to take the plunge to full electric, it will hurt Tesla market share dramatically. This will happen mainly due to an abundance of resources, funding, and partnerships that large scale auto manufactures already have. The lone wolf mentality we can do it on our own has never worked in the history of the automobile. Everyone needs help from someone, multiple minds need to be pooled together to make the best decisions. Tesla under new leadership and attaining a board can be on that path, but under the helm of the Muskinator will not see the light of day in partnerships. Another factor will be the cost of the models produced. What happens when the likes of Mercedes, Audi, BMW, and Lexus produce direct competitors of the current Tesla lineup? They’ll be higher quality inside and out, and here’s the kicker, might cost less. The consumers see’s trusted brands who build quality vehicles (they all have their own respective problems, but you get what I mean) building PEV and EV models now. Can you imagine the likes of Mercedes or Audi coming out with a competitive EV that is of higher quality and cost less than the competitive Tesla? Even if at a slight loss, the larger companies can do that just capture the entire market share. Tesla doesn’t have the experience to compete with 60/70/80/90/100/110/120 year old auto manufactures. Despite the 5 billion spent to build the GWh factory in Nevada for Tesla, an entire auto industry building battery factories to fulfill their doable projected vehicle production needs will ta away Tesla market share. Musk projects market share as if no company will ever make EV’s. His projections will dramatically reduce when their not the only players in town, and that change will start to show in 2019/2020, and dramatically shift by 2025. As for your shorter range debate, that will benefit the larger manufactures. The reason I say that, it leaves the consumer open for PEV’s and allows the market to adapt to the change, and it allows for lower priced vehicles. PEV’s will fill the gap in time needed for larger companies to develop longer range batteries. Granted they’ll have one or two halo models that are priced accordingly, but the waters look muddy for Teslas future to me. If you can take anything away from my long af post, it should be that the market share that Tesla projects for it’s future will dramatically change. Not saying they’ll be an after thought, but it’s easy to be the leader when no one is making EV’s currently. People are more excited for the i-Pace than a model X. Less expensive, more luxurious, an extensive amount of money behind TATA Motors, and Jag currently competing in Formula E. Tesla one track mind, lack of experience and partnerships, and Musk leadership will prevent them from growing to reach projected sales numbers. As Conor McGregor would say, “Mark my words”, Tesla will see a shift 2019/2020.

      • David Jones

        After a checking further, the PA Consulting conclusion that Daimler will be leading the EV market doesn’t seem to add up, even VW have seemingly more aggressive goals (1.5 million EVs?):

        Daimler sales for 2017: 2095810 of which 15% is 314371.5 or basically about 314k EVs and that percentage. 25% is 523952.5 or about 524k vehicles. Daimler revenue growth is much slower then Tesla so unless Tesla suddenly stops growing completely, the above numbers projected outward are not in favor of Daimler.

        The Daimler percentage plan is for 2025. The projection that Tesla cannot build more then 500k or even 1million vehicles per year by 2025 is extremely bearish unless Daimler somehow expects to produce multiple times their current output in vehicles by then. Even at the extremely positive projection that 10.7% (2017) revenue growth is maintained until 2025, they would have about 1.18 million EVs at 25% (their upper range). Tesla may very well reach above 1 million EVs years earlier (2021-2023) even at a much more conservative growth than they experienced in the past.

        Judging by the numbers above, Daimler cannot take the lead even if they wanted to. Not unless they convert more then 25% of their output to EV by 2021 (their actual passive assumption is 2025). If I am wrong, someone can correct me, as it is I call BS.

    • Smith

      Delusional, foolish Tesla workers should not be allowed on blogs because they have no idea about the real world, they live in a fantasy world, totally out of touch with reality.

      • Dude

        So true! They seem to write a ton about nothing.

    • Daniela Wolf

      Are u sure about that!?

  • TheBelltower

    We will see. Two of my cars are an i3 and a Model X. In comparison to Tesla, BMW doesn’t know what they’re doing.

    • Mr. EP9

      Can’t compare a hatchback to a crossover.

      • TheBelltower

        I’m comparing the business. BMW is not set up to properly sell and service EV’s. Most of the salespeople don’t know anything about the cars, and they still don’e even offer charging at their franchise dealerships. Those that do offer charging require payment, and the chargers are often blocked. Then there are issues with the cars. I love the car, but it’s not as thoughtfully designed and built as a Tesla. It’s like night and day.

        • Dude (the first)

          Dude, BMW aside, Tesla will fall to also-ran status in short order as the stormclouds of serious completion gather. The first thing they should do to change their quirky juvenile circus-like perception is place a real professional management team at the helm. They’ve chosen to be a public company, now they should act as one.

          • TheBelltower

            That’s fine if that is what you think. Though, just curious… What clown do you think is qualified to run a car company? Most car companies are just chasing after the tail of another car company.

          • Dude

            Care to elaborate or defend your messiah Musk after today’s example of brand perception destruction and idiotic comments. “PEDO” anyone????

  • ace_9

    Calling Model 3 “entry-level” seems to be a little bit optimistic…

    • ultraman

      After options a 3 is a much as three entry level sedans.

  • Arthur Burnside

    Tesla is about to face some real obstacles, in the way of competitors who not only are ahead of Tesla’s EV technology (greater driving range, recharges twice as fast, a universal standard recharger protocol which is already being built out globally, and in the U.S. a $7500 sticker price advantage over anything Tesla makes. Already the first few of the more than 120 electric models coming to the world’s automaker showrooms
    during the next several years will be providing strong competition against Tesla’s aging fleet – and they are priced considerable less (Jaguar I Pace, Buick Enspire, Polestar 2). The world’s automakers have tens of millions of loyal customers who will not switch to an erratic and amateurish company like Tesla but will buy their favored brand’s electric vehicles. Besides, who wants to drive a death trap like a Tesla on Autopilot. Right now Tesla is running out of buyers for their optioned, expensive Model 3, the only version they can build at a profit. That is the obvious reason for opening up Model 3
    sales to those not on the reservation list.

    • Dude

      Tesla will soon learn what it really means to compete.. their honeymoon is screeching to an abrupt halt!!!

      • Awroo

        Really they’ve been competing with other automakers for a while now. That guy’s comment really doesn’t understand Tesla’s business model

        • Dude

          Don’t real business models include turning a profit at some point… hell, at any point??? Or am I just loco mi amigo?

          • Awroo

            Crazy? Probably. Stupid? Definitely. And I’m not sure what authority you have to determine a “real” business model, but Tesla does have profits in mind, but that’s the goal right now. They are fully aware of how their bleeding money but that doesn’t matter. If Tesla wanted profit they could’ve easily stuck with being a low volume sports car company like Polestar, but they’re aiming higher than that. Their plan isn’t very complicated or different from other new tech companies like Uber or Snapchat, but barring any catastrophically bad moves, they will find success. Anyone with actual business knowledge knows this is true and that’s why investors continue to pour millions into them despite internet nobodies claiming otherwise.

          • Dude [Original]

            I call bs on all the crap you say. You should be embarrassed to make those ridiculous claims. Do you really think you’re helping with your carnival statements????

            Unfuqqingbelievable some idiot people!!!

          • Awroo

            Are you trolling or did you just have a stroke? You can call bs all you want but that doesn’t make you any less wrong lol. Just look at their stock. It’s more volatile than something like Apple, but the long-term trend is obviously upward. Tesla has only made a profit twice and the last time was two years ago. If their situation was as dire as you say it is, why would people continue to invest in them? Because they have, and continue to being revolution to multiple industries and they have a clear path for success.

          • Dude[Check JoinDate InProfile]

            Tesla with Musk is toast dude. No more, no less.

          • Awroo

            If that actually becomes the case then the BoD will oust him as CEO and things will continue as planned. I understand that people don’t like Musk but his one part of the company, not the entire thing. People don’t even remember that he didn’t start Tesla; he just bought them. Christ. Why bother commenting if you’re so uneducated?

            Also, really? Upvoting your own comments? Very classy.

          • Dude[Check JoinDate InProfile]

            I like the guy who jammed a hemi 5.7 in his Tesla bc he was fed up with charging times. Genius!

          • Awroo

            You’re an absolute moron if you think someone engine swapped a Tesla just because of charging times. Find me a link proving such a thing because I’ve searched everywhere and can’t find evidence to you’re bullshit.

          • Dudes

            LOL!!! Hmmmm, now who’s the moron????

          • Awroo
        • Dude

          Gonna learn! Gonna learn today!

          • Awroo

            Outstanding. How’s 6th grade going?

  • Dude [Original]

    Not surprising. Bigger companies can make more cars. Also, that new kidney grille is awful

    • Mr. EP9

      Why is there two of you?

      • Dude [Original]

        Some idiot is copying my name and icon. Idk why

        • brn

          The internet is a funny place.

          • Dude [Original]

            So true

          • Dude[Check JoinDate InProfile]

            It’s so annoying. Especially because he doesn’t even write like me. I’m pretty sure he’s someone that left the site after I destroyed him in an argument. Jfc I’ve never seen someone so butthurt.

          • Dude[Check JoinDate InProfile]

            Why are you still using my ID? It’s so juvinile of you! Time to grow up dicksmack.

          • Dude[Check JoinDate InProfile]

            It’s a good ID. Anyone who looks at the join date will see that I’m the original and you’re the special child playing copy-cat. Feel free to keep trolling, I’m not worried about it anymore. Tbh your life must be pretty sad if this is what you spend your time doing. I hope it gets better 👍

          • Dude[Check JoinDate InProfile]

            You are being petulant and childish. Why are you impostering here?

          • Dude[Check JoinDate InProfile]

            You should rather spend your time watching cookie monster sing chocolate rain on youtube. What’s the diff???

  • brn

    Um, an established car brand already has an electric vehicle. GM with the Bolt and Nissan with the Leaf. The study would be a lot more interesting if it weighed in on how those vehicles are competing with Tesla.

    What really bugs me is their list of brands ignores GM, who has what is probably one of the more enticing EVs available.

    • Dude (the first)

      There’s also a Chinese company that’s selling an absurd amount of EVs… but no mention either. : (

    • OdysseyTag

      Well if the list focused on the US and China, I’d agree that GM is a glaring omission but if we talking globally, I’d imagine not so much. GM has pretty much dropped out of every “non-vital” market, sold off It’s European division, has on and off tentions at GM Korea etc. I honestly don’t know how much of a global player they want to be in the future.

  • Sébastien

    A “study” doesn’t mean much is you don’t know who paid for it.

    “Unlike Tesla, all of the aforementioned car manufacturers have established supply chains to accelerate the development and production of electric vehicles. What’s more, they all have decades…” Of time and chances wasted to embrace EV ?

    • Dude [Original]

      Whatever… say what ever absurd crap you want, but you can’t stop the inevitable. Tesla’s salad days are over.

  • Dennis James

    Well…that was Elon Musk’s plan all along. To speed up electric car adoption. That’s why they opensourced all of the Tesla’s patents. Tesla has done it’s job, it was just a tool to change mentalities and build a better world. Now it’s time for SpaceX and Boring Company.

    • brn

      Correct. He’s said before that his intent was to invigorate the market. He fully expected to be surpassed.

      • Dude

        And he will

  • David Jones

    Here is what Daimler, the first on the list to apparently surpass Tesla and everyone else in terms of EVs, say on their official webpage:

    “The company assumes that until 2025 the proportion of electric vehicles
    in total unit sales of Mercedes-Benz will be between 15 and 25 percent.
    This is dependent on (on) the development of infrastructure and client
    preferences”

    Note the use of the word “assumes” and the last sentence: “This is dependent on the development of infrastructure and client preferences”. That basically means that they may do this, they may not. It is not even a
    goal and by the sound of the last sentence they will likely be relying
    on others to build the infrastructure so their targets aren’t dependent
    on their direct actions.

    Considering the above, I have to wonder what these professional agencies are doing when they present us with these projections and how they might be reaching their conclusions. I may be mistaken but it seems to me that such projections are mainly based on the idea that Tesla will fail to reach targets in combination with the idea that the legacy car makers are serious about EVs even without Tesla there to keep them in line. Neither of these assumptions appear to be solid in my opinion, based on what has happened so far over
    the last decade.

  • Dude

    Omg, please wipe it with some vagisil and then just shut it!!

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